Affichage des archives de mercredi, 6 novembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Nov 06 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Nov 2024	249	008
07 Nov 2024	247	011
08 Nov 2024	243	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.86 flare peaking on November 06 at 08:50 UTC, which was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3887. A newly emerged active region in the north-west quadrant of the Sun. The second largest flare was a M4.19 flare peaking on November 05 at 15:26 UTC, which was associated with an AR just over the west limb. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region 3887 and 3888 have emerged on disk in the northwest quadrant of the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 17:24 UTC on November 04 shows that no impact from this CME is expected at Earth.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around November 09.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 420 and 489 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 196, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Nov 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	013
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	214 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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