Affichage des archives de vendredi, 29 novembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Nov 29 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 Nov 2024	213	004
30 Nov 2024	208	020
01 Dec 2024	205	015

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only five C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3908) produced two among which the brightest flare: a C5 on 29 Nov at 03:01 UTC (SIDC flare 2748). Two other flares were associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA AR 3906) and the last flare of the past 24 hours was from SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA AR 3912). M-class flaring activity is expected for the next 24 hours mostly from SIDC Sunspot Groups 323, 322, and 302 (NOAA AR 3910). A small chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours still exists.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is expected to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours with the exception of a minor magnetic disturbance. The SW speed varied between from 330 km/h and 470 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 10 nT with the exception of a disturbance that lasted several hours and peaked at 17 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) registered values between -9 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause a disturbance to the SW conditions.

Géomagnétisme

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 0+ to 2+), while locally they were quiet with a very brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours a Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels both globally and locally.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is still a small chance of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 158, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Nov 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	213
Flux solaire à 10 cm	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	174 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien