Affichage des archives de samedi, 30 novembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Nov 30 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Nov 2024	208	011
01 Dec 2024	204	007
02 Dec 2024	200	005

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent over the past 24 hours, with about a dozen C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3906) produced half of the flaring activity, including the brightest flare, a C9 on 30 Nov at 09:06 UTC (SIDC flare 2763). SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912) produced the second brightest flare, a C5 on Nov 30 at 06:00 UTC, while SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA AR 3905) produced three C-class flares during the past 24 hours. M-class flaring activity is still expected, either from SIDC Sunspot Group 323, 302, or 322 in the next 24 hours. A small chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours still exists.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial CME observed by LASCO-C2/SOHO as launched on 29 Nov at 10:16 UTC appears to be a back-sided event and thus not geo-effective.

Vent solaire

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on 29 Nov around 17:00 UTC that lasted until 30 Nov 05:30 UTC. As predicted the resulted disturbance was relatively minor. The SW speed increased from 350 to 430 km/s as a result of the arrival, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) raised from 4 to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the arrival of the CME and then fluctuated between the two directions. The effects of the CME have now subsided and the SW conditions are expected to be in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

During the last 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached the minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5-) on 30 Nov from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC, while for the rest of the time they were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3- to 1-). The local geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels (K BEL 1 to 4) during the same period. Both global and local conditions are expected to drop to unsettled to quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is still a small chance of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 124, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Nov 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	161 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien