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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 10 1235 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
10 Jan 2025	166	010
11 Jan 2025	168	014
12 Jan 2025	170	006

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring. The strongest activity was a C4.1 flare with peak time 11:19 UTC on January 10 produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 remaining the largest, most active and most complex region, retaining a beta-gamma-delta magnetic type configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3953) has exhibited some growth and started to produce low C-class flaring. Several new regions have been numbers, namely SIDC Sunspot Group 369 (currently located at S32W43) and SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (currently located at N06E31), both classified as magnetic type beta, as well as a magnetically simple region SIDC Sunspot Group 371 (currently located at S09E54). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 50% chance for M-class flares and small probability for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

A filament eruption on the central meridian appears visible in the SUVI and SDO/AIA data around 20 degrees north from the disc centre starting at about 10:30 UTC on January 09. Data gaps in the chronograph imagery makes it difficult to conclude the possible presence of any coronal mass ejection (CME) related to this eruption. At present no Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered mild enhancements possibly related to an anticipated high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached value of 10.3 nT with a minimum Bz value of -10.1 nT. The solar wind speed has slightly increased, varying in the range of 345 km/s to 494 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain mildly elevated on January 10 and return towards background slow solar wind conditions by January 12.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to ongoing connection to a mild high speed stream originating from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours with remaining chances for small enhancements pending new eruptive activity particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has briefly crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels. It is expected to decrease to nominal levels in the next 24 hours and stay at nominal levels in the upcoming days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 122, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 09 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	212
Flux solaire à 10 cm	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	163 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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