Affichage des archives de jeudi, 9 janvier 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 09 1245 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Jan 2025	162	015
10 Jan 2025	160	018
11 Jan 2025	158	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate over the past 24 hours with an impulsive M1.1 flare, peak time 00:26 UTC on January 09 related to activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). This region remains the largest and most complex one (classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) and was responsible for most of the flaring activity with some contribution from SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945), magnetic type beta, and SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3950), which has evolved into magnetic type beta. A new region in the north western quadrant was growing and numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3953), magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 356 (NOAA Active Region 3943) in the south- west quadrant also increased its underlying magnetic field complexity and is now classified as magnetic type beta, though it has remained inactive and shown some decrease in area. The remaining active have been predominantly simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with likely M-class flares and 15% chance for X-class flaring primarily from SIDC Sunspot Group 360.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mild enhancements. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly enhanced reaching 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -8.3 nT. The solar wind speed has decreased to about 400 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced with anticipated two high speed stream arrivals on January 09 and January 10.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 48 hours due to anticipated high speed stream arrivals with possible isolated minor storm intervals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours with remaining chances for small enhancements pending new eruptive activity particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the threshold for extended periods over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 158, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	167
Flux solaire à 10 cm	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	117 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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