Affichage des archives de mardi, 21 janvier 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 21 1300 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
21 Jan 2025	231	011
22 Jan 2025	232	010
23 Jan 2025	233	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M3.4 flare peaking on Jan 21 at 10:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 347 (NOAA Active Region 3967). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 347) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 378 (NOAA Active Regions 3961 and 3964) are the complex regions with their beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 03:48 UTC on Jan 21, with the main propagation direction towards North. It has a projected width of about 114 deg and a projected speed of about 870 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). Further analysis is ongoing to estimate the potential Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Vent solaire

Earth still continues to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. The solar wind speed ranged from 460 km/s to 710 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 nT and 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 4 and K_BEL 1 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. We expect quiet to active conditions (K 2 to 4) in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was almost below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours, except for a short interval around 13:30 UTC on Jan 20, during which it was slightly above the threshold level. It is expected to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours but slight increase above the threshold level cannot be excluded. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 17:30 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 22:50 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 158, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 20 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	230
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	022
Ap estimé	020
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	192 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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