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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 24 1301 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
24 Jan 2025	217	027
25 Jan 2025	215	064
26 Jan 2025	215	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C8.0 flare peaking at 16:36 UTC on Jan 23, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 383 (NOAA AR 3961 and 3971) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Groups 342 and 346 (NOAA AR 3959 and 3961) were accompanied with faint and narrow CMEs which are not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged from 400 km/s to 575 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT, and the North-South component (Bz) ranged from -6 nT to 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect enhanced solar wind conditions with the possible arrival of two coronal mass ejections that were observed lifting from the Sun on Jan 21-22.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible if the Earth experiences arrivals of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated to the two CMEs that were observed lifting from the Sun on Jan 21-22.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 342 (NOAA Active region 3959).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the 1000 pfu threshold level at 13:30 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 20:50 UTC on Jan 22. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 15:50 UTC on Jan 23 and dropped below the threshold level at 00:00 UTC on Jan 24. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 145, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 23 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	215
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	019
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	166 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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