Affichage des archives de jeudi, 23 janvier 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 23 1257 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
23 Jan 2025	200	011
24 Jan 2025	195	051
25 Jan 2025	190	063

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C9.2 flare peaking at 02:03 UTC on Jan 23, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 is the most complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 11:36 UTC on Jan 22. This CME was associated with a M1.3 flare, which peaked at 11:08 UTC on Jan 22, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961, S16 W15) and the filament eruptions near the same AR. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 10:58 UTC during the flaring activity. Associated southward coronal dimming and the EUV wave were also observed. It has a projected speed of about 600 km/s. With its source region closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Jan 25. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Solar wind parameters have transitioned from fast to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 km/s to 490 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 to 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SE limb of the Sun on Jan 21 enhances the solar wind.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible if the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SE limb of the Sun on Jan 21.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the 1000 pfu threshold level at 15:10 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 19:10 UTC on Jan 22. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 15:10 UTC on Jan 22 and dropped below the threshold level at 01:00 UTC on Jan 23. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 163, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 22 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	158
Flux solaire à 10 cm	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	147 - Basé sur 05 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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