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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 02 1242 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Feb 2025	190	017
03 Feb 2025	192	019
04 Feb 2025	196	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was an M3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3447) peaking on February 02 at 10:12 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). The second largest was a M2.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3441) peaking on February 01 at 13:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Regions 3953, 3977). The active regions SIDC Sunspot Group 388 and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976) is the largest and most magnetic complex region on disk, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977) both have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. A faint northeast directed CME observed at 11:24 UTC on February 1 in LASCO-C2 data is determined to be back sided and will not impact the Earth.

Vent solaire

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were still disturbed, due to a high-speed stream (HSS) that arrived on 31 January. The total interplanetary magnetic started this past 24-hour period around 14 nT and then gradually started to decrease around 20:00 UTC on February 01 to around 6 nT The Bz component reaching a minimum of -12 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 580 km/s to 736 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the HSS and the expected arrival of a CME that left the Sun on January 30.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally active conditions (Kp 4) and reached minor storm conditions locally (K BEL 5). Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 170, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	029
Ap estimé	033
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	145 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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