Affichage des archives de samedi, 1 mars 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Mar 01 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Mar 2025	154	024
02 Mar 2025	156	017
03 Mar 2025	158	006

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006), SIDC Sunspot Group 416 (NOAA Active Region 4007), SIDC Sunspot Group 420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 417 (NOAA Active Region 4010) are all classified as magnetic type beta and have contributed to the low levels of flaring activity. The strongest activity was a C6.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3732) peaking on March 01 at 08:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 417. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with 30% chances for M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A filament eruption near W60N05 was visible around 16:30 UTC on Feb 28, preceding a fast and strong partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first detected in LASCO/C2 imagery around 17:12 UTC on Feb 28. A type II radio burst related to the partial halo CME was detected around 17:00 UTC on Feb 28 with estimated velocity of 1151 km/s. The CME is estimated to be back-sided and is not expected to arrive at Earth. Currently no CME associated to the on disc filament eruption can be identified in the available coronagraph data. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued to be disturbed by an ongoing high speed stream (HSS) arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, was moderate with a maximum value of 11.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -8.9 nT. The solar wind speed was relatively high, exceeding 800 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal holes. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next two days under the ongoing influence of high speed streams.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally varied between quiet and minor storm levels. Locally over Belgium mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed. Quiet to conditions with probably isolated minor storms are expected for the next 24 hours and mostly quiet to active conditions are expected on Mar 02. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on Mar 03.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours with possible minor enhancements due to shock-accelerated particles related to the back-sided partial halo CME from Feb 28.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours. It is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 106, sur la base de 05 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	194
Flux solaire à 10 cm	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	032
Ap estimé	033
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	117 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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