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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 19 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Feb 2025	185	026
20 Feb 2025	183	007
21 Feb 2025	181	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3654) peaking on February 19 at 10:49 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 404 (NOAA Active Region 3997). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a M-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 91 (high-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) crossed the central meridian on February 16. This CH is located at high northern latitudes, so its solar wind will probably not affect the Earth.

Vent solaire

The solar wind speed at Earth has been steady at around 500 km/s in the last 24 hours, with an interplanetary magnetic field currently around 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated (reaching 11 nT, with Bz down to - 8 nT) in the last 24 hours, this was probably related to a mild glancing blow of a CME leaving the Sun on 15 February. A gradual transition to slower solar wind can be expected in the next 24 hours, with low chances of seeing an ICME arrival corresponding to the CME of 16 February.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels with Kp up to 5 between 00:00 UTC to 03:00 UTC. Mostly unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with low chances of more disturbed periods if the ICME corresponding to the CME of 16 February arrives (low chances).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 electron flux has been above the threshold in the last 24 hours, but it is currently below it. It is expected to rise above the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 127, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	016
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	159 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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