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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jul 05 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Jul 2025	117	024
06 Jul 2025	113	013
07 Jul 2025	115	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was very low over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux remained below C-level. There are currently five numbered active regions on the visible solar disk, all of which have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta). SIDC Sunspot Group 533 (NOAA Active Region 4122; alpha) is approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly disturbed under the ongoing influence of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), possibly combined with a high- speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111). The interplanetary magnetic field reached values up to 12 nT, and the solar wind speed increased from 340 km/s to around 470 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -10 nT and 9 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the waning ICME influence and negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp = 4-; K-Bel = 4) between 21:00 and 00:00 UTC on July 04, and again between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC on July 05. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active periods due to ongoing ICME influence and the high-speed stream (HSS) from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold between 18:00 UTC and 22:45 UTC on July 04. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 077, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Jul 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	093
Flux solaire à 10 cm	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	013
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	108 - Basé sur 31 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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