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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jul 06 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Jul 2025	117	029
07 Jul 2025	115	017
08 Jul 2025	119	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 4801), peaking at 10:53 UTC on July 06, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 543 (NOAA Active Region 4130; beta). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 533 (NOAA Active Region 4122; alpha) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the coming hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 539 (NOAA Active Region 4127; beta). The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or beta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a small chance for M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated, with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching values up to 13 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 400 km/s to 480 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -12 nT and 11 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next days due to the influence of a high-speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole, possibly mixed with waning ICME influence.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp = 5; K-Bel = 5) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on July 06. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods due to the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream (HSS) from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111), possibly combined with ICME influence.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 087, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Jul 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	020
Ap estimé	024
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	075 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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