Affichage des archives de mercredi, 12 novembre 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Nov 12 1242 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Nov 2025	162	061
13 Nov 2025	162	048
14 Nov 2025	162	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class events. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) remains the most complex and productive region, currently at N24W40 with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, showing signs of gradual decay. Additional C-class flares came from SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA AR 4276), which has a beta configuration and was stable. One C-class flare was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 690 (NOAA AR 4277), located at S06W05 with a beta configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Following the X5.1 flare (SIDC flare 6028) that peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 November from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274), a halo coronal mass ejections (SIDC CME 600) was detected. Coronagraph SOHO/LASCO-C2 data show first appearance at 11:12 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of 679 km/s and a speed range from 189 to 1953 km/s as detected by the CACTus Tool. The true speed is estimated near 1500 km/s, with Earth arrival expected early on 13 November 2025.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 126, an mid-north coronal hole with negative polarity, has returned on the disk and is currently situated on the western side of the Sun.

Vent solaire

Solar wind conditions were disturbed by the arrival of two coronal mass ejections. The first interplanetary solar wind shock was observed at 22:15 UTC on 11 November 2025 in DSCOVR data. Solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to 500 km/s and the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rose from 5 nT to 12 nT. This shock is associated with the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598) associated with to the X1.7 flare (SIDC flare 6002) at 07:35 UTC on 9 November, with an initiation speed near 720 km/s. Then second shock followed at 23:45 UTC on 11 November 2025. Solar wind speed rose to about 720 km/s, the total IMF reached 63 nT, and the southward component Bz reached -53 nT. This second shock is associated with the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 599), linked to the X1.2 flare (SIDC flare 6010) at 09:19 UTC on 10 November, with an initiation speed near 1300 km/s. Conditions are expected to remain disturbed. The coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 600) associated with the X5.1 flare (SIDC flare 6028) at 10:04 UTC on 11 November and an initiation speed near 1500 km/s, is en route and expected to arrive early on 13 November 2025. Its arrival may further perturb the solar wind.

Géomagnétisme

Over the past 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were elevated due to the arrival of two coronal mass ejections. The local Kbel index in Belgium reached 7 at 00:00 UTC on 12 November (major storm) and 9 by 02:00 UTC (extreme storm). NOAA Kp was 9- for the three-hour interval from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC on 12 November (severe storm). Conditions have since eased to about Kp 7 (major storm) and local Kbel 6 (moderate storm). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced, ranging from active to minor storm levels over the next 24 hours, with additional disturbances possible upon the arrival of coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 600) from 11 November, which is expected early on 13 November 2025.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has remained well above the 10 pfu threshold since it first crossed that level at 11:30 UTC on 10 November, following activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). Higher energy channels responded promptly, with clear rises at greater than 50 MeV and greater than 100 MeV, and a noticeable increase at greater than 500 MeV, indicating a hard-spectrum SEP component. Proton flux is expected to stay elevated over the next 24 hours, with further enhancements possible if additional major flares occur or as CME-driven shocks propagate from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu at the start of the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 144, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Nov 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	159
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	149 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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