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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Dec 09 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Dec 2025	185	022
10 Dec 2025	184	010
11 Dec 2025	183	020

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with five M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6350) peaking at 21:17 UTC on December 8, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Groups 719, 720 (both magnetic type beta) have emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active Region 4295) has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 607) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 22:36 UTC on December 08. The CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with the M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6344), peaking at 22:28 UTC on December 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could be possible from late on December 11. Further analysis is ongoing to better estimate its impact.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values varied between 350 km/s and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were mostly stable around 7 nT until 08:00 UTC on December 09 when they increased up to 9 nT, due to a possible ICME arrival. The Bz component varied between 0 nT and -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME influence

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions due to the ongoing ICME influence, are expected over the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with chances for further enhancements.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 157, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Dec 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Ap estimé	001
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	165 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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