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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Dec 02 1240 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Dec 2025	198	005
03 Dec 2025	200	020
04 Dec 2025	202	018

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The strongest activity was a C4.8 flare with peak time 21:54 UTC on Dec 01, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). A total of 10 sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 remains the largest and most complex region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. Other notable regions are SIDC Sunspot Group 712 (NOAA Active Region 4296) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299), both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, the later rotating more fully onto the visible disk. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flares and chances of isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

An negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH SIDC 140), which first crossed the central meridian on Nov 30 continues to reside there. A high speed stream emanating from it is expected to arrive at Earth from Dec 03 onwards.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied in the range of 378 km/s to 508 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, remained weak with a maximum value of 6.7 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 4.3 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at background slow solar wind conditions until early UTC evening of Dec 03 when a mild high speed stream arrival related to coronal hole SIDC 140 is expected to arrive at Earth.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly quiet to unsettled condition are expected for the next 24 hours. Active levels and isolated minor storm conditions might be reached on Dec 03 and Dec 04 with an anticipated mild high speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels. Some enhancements in the proton flux might be expected over the next days related to possible eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 687, SIDC Sunspot Group 709 or SIDC Sunspot Group 712.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 10 MeV electron flux (as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19) has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 176, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Dec 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	184
Flux solaire à 10 cm	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	145 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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