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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Dec 03 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Dec 2025	202	021
04 Dec 2025	202	018
05 Dec 2025	200	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with only C-class flares identified. The strongest activity was a C5.4 flare (SIDC Flare 6271) with peak time 20:38 UTC on on Dec 02, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 703 (NOAA Active Region 4288). The region is classified as magnetic type beta and is currently approaching the west limb. A total of 11 sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299) are the most complex regions, both classified as magnetic type beta-delta. The latter regions together with SIDC Sunspot Group 703 and SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298) were responsible for most of the flaring activity throughout the past 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with background C-class flaring, likely M-class flares and chances of isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

A large filament eruption is visible in the SDO/AIA 30.4 nm imagery in the western solar hemisphere, lifting off the solar surface around 10 UTC on Dec 03. Coronagraph imagery is awaited to estimate any possible Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) related to this eruption. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions throughout Dec 02 and have registered small enhancements in the UTC morning of Dec 03. The registered solar wind speed was in the range of 353 km/s to 538 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, has increased up 12.2 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 9.3 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register a mild high speed stream arrival related to a negative polarity coronal hole (CH SIDC 140), possibly mixed with a minor glancing blow influence from the partial halo CME associated with the X1.9-flare on Dec 01.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected for Dec 03 and Dec 04 with likely isolated minor storms and small chances for reaching moderate storm levels later on Dec 03.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with chances for some enhancements in case of new strong flaring and eruptive activity.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 10 MeV electron flux (as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19) has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 173, sur la base de 06 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Dec 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	217
Flux solaire à 10 cm	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	013
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	170 - Basé sur 10 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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