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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2026 Jan 22 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
22 Jan 2026	192	013
23 Jan 2026	192	012
24 Jan 2026	192	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were observed on the disk. The largest event was a C8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 6706) peaking on January 21 at 19:38 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Regions 4321 and 4341). SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Region 4341), currently located at S09W26, had a Beta magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours; it remains the most flare-productive region and also produced a C8.3 flare on January 22 at 10:49 UTC (SIDC Flare 6707). SIDC Sunspot Group 769 (NOAA Active Region 4349), currently located at S14E43, also had a Beta magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours, with some additional C-class activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares very likely.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO images over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (trans-equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) first reached the central meridian on January 16 and is now partially positioned on the western side of the Sun.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions continued to relax compared to the initial ICME impact. Solar wind speed remained elevated but decreased overall, ranging from about 760 km/s down to about 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was moderate, with the total IMF Bt staying below about 10 nT, while the north-south IMF component Bz fluctuated between about -7 nT and +8 nT, with mainly weak southward values earlier in the interval and more northward values toward the end. These trends are consistent with the late recovery phase, with a gradual return toward more typical solar wind conditions expected as speeds continue to decline.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic activity decreased markedly over the past 24 hours and was mainly unsettled to active. Globally, NOAA Kp reached minor storm levels early in the interval (up to about Kp 6), then remained mostly in the active to unsettled range (around Kp 2 to 4). Over Belgium, K_BEL briefly reached 5 early in the interval and then stayed mostly between 2 and 3, with short periods near 4. Further unsettled to active conditions remain possible while solar wind speed stays elevated and Bz occasionally turns southward, but the overall trend is toward continued recovery.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The solar energetic particle event associated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678, peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC) remained ongoing until 2026 Jan 22 at 08:35 UTC, when the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue to decay toward background levels. A new solar energetic particle event cannot be excluded given the number of sunspot groups currently on the visible disk, in particular the most magnetically complex regions.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES electron flux stayed close to the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours and intermittently exceeding the threshold. In response of the elevated solar wind speed in the past 3 days, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux may remain near or above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at moderate levels and is expected to stay around these levels, with a possible increase if elevated electron flux persists.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 177, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 21 Jan 2026

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	042
AK Wingst	058
Ap estimé	067
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	159 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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