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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2026 Jan 23 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
23 Jan 2026	190	017
24 Jan 2026	190	017
25 Jan 2026	190	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were observed on the disk. The largest event was a C9.5 flare (SIDC Flare 6716) peaking on January 22 at 19:54 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 772 (NOAA Active Region 4353). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares very likely.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO images over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (trans-equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) first reached the central meridian on January 16 and is now partially positioned on the western side of the Sun.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions were moderately elevated but comparatively steady. Solar wind speed ranged from about 440 km/s to about 606 km/s and remained mostly near 500-600 km/s, indicating a gradual return toward more typical conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed at moderate levels, with Bt reaching up to about 11 nT. The north south IMF component Bz fluctuated between about -8 nT and +8 nT, with extended intervals of weak to moderate southward Bz, which sustained enhanced geomagnetic coupling despite the overall lower field strength than during the ICME impact.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic activity continued to ease but remained unsettled to active. Globally, NOAA Kp reached active to minor storm levels, peaking near Kp 5 during the late hours of January 22, and then remained mostly around Kp 4 thereafter. Locally over Belgium, K_BEL stayed mainly in the unsettled to active range, generally between 2 and 4, with the higher values occurring during periods of southward Bz. Further unsettled to active conditions remain possible while solar wind speeds stay moderately elevated and Bz turns southward intermittently, but the overall trend continues to point toward recovery.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The solar energetic particle event associated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678, peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC) remained ongoing until 2026 Jan 22 at 08:35 UTC, when the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue to decay toward background levels. A new solar energetic particle event cannot be excluded given the number of sunspot groups currently on the visible disk, in particular the most magnetically complex regions.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES electron flux stayed close or above to the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. In response of the elevated solar wind speed in the past 3 days, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux may remain near or above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at moderate levels and is expected to stay around these levels, with a possible increase if elevated electron flux persists.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 162, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 22 Jan 2026

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	250
Flux solaire à 10 cm	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	020
Ap estimé	020
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	185 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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