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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2005 Jul 30 2204 UTCPreparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 211 Emesso alle 2200Z il Jul 30 2005IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-29 alle 2100Z-30 Solar activity was high. Region 792 (N12E52) produced
an X1/2b event today with maximum at 0635 UTC. The event had a long
decay time and was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps.
The event was also associated with a fast, full halo CME. The CME
had an estimated plane-of-sky speed in the range of 1700-1800 km/s
in the LASCO C3 field of view, and was somewhat asymmetric towards
the east. Region 792 consists of a compact cluster of spots and
appears to have at least two delta configurations within its complex
magnetic configuration. In addition to the X-flare, Region 792 also
produced a C9/1n at 0519 UTC and a C8/Sf at 1707 UTC. Another CME
has been observed following the C8 event, but so far appears to be a
limb event rather than a partial or full halo event.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate for the next three days (31 July - 02 August), but
there is a fair chance for additional, isolated major flare activity
from Region 792. In addition, there is an increasing likelihood that
major flare activity from Region 792 will lead to enhanced proton
flux as the group rotates closer to disk center.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-29 alle 2100Z-30
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data show a gradual decline in velocity,
indicating the transition from a high speed stream to normal solar
wind conditions; day end velocities were at 470-480 km/s. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300 UTC continues
in progress. The maximum flux observed so far is 41 PFU at 29/1715
UTC. There was no detectable upturn in proton flux from today's
major flare/CME event, although it may be contributing to the
prolonging of the currently enhanced flux levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for 31 July. A glancing blow from
today's full halo CME is expected early on 01 August and is expected
to increase activity to predominantly active levels, with a chance
for some minor storm periods. Conditions should decline to unsettled
to slightly active by 02 August.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Jul del 31 alle Aug del 02
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protone | 80% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 30 Jul 105 Previsto 31 Jul-02 Aug 110/115/115 Media di 90 Giorni 30 Jul 096
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 29 Jul 014/019 Stimato Afr/Ap 30 Jul 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/015-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 31 Jul al 02 Aug
| A. Latitudini Medie | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempesta minore | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudini Alte | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempesta minore | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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Notizie sul meteo spaziale
| Ultimo brillamento X | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Ultimo brillamento M | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Ultima tempesta geomagnetica | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Giorni senza macchie | |
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