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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2013 Nov 13 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Nov 2013	164	012
14 Nov 2013	166	012
15 Nov 2013	162	008

Bulletin

The flaring activity during last 24 hours was on the C-class level. The strongest flare observed was the C 9.8 flare (peaked at 23:08 UT on November 12) originating from the NOAA AR 1897. We expect flaring of the C-class and also M-class level, X-class flares are possible but not very probable. Flaring is expected in particular from the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) and NOAA AR 1897. Due to the position of Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 07:00 UT on November 12, will not arrive at the Earth. The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind flow with the speed of about 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude of 4 nT. The arrival of the fast solar wind stream from a low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian today, is expected late on November 16. The geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. We expect active geomagnetic conditions in the following hours due to arrival of the halo CME which erupted on November 10.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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