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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Feb 09 1455 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Feb 2014	168	014
10 Feb 2014	164	005
11 Feb 2014	160	006

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity continues to decrease. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C8.6 flare peaking yesterday at 18:33 UT in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967). All other flares did not reach the C3 level. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) are currently situated at the west solar limb, maintaining respectively beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta configurations of the photospheric magnetic field. Due to position of these groups at the west limb, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. We expect flaring activity to continue on the C-level, with an isolated M-class flare being unlikely. The Earth is now exiting the trailing part of the ICME that followed the shock arrival on February 7. The ICME triggered active (K = 4) to minor storm (K = 5) conditions according to IZMIRAN and NOAA respectively. The solar wind speed is currently around 420 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 8 nT. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions, with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) being possible but unlikely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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