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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 May 03 1210 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 May 2014	145	003
04 May 2014	150	007
05 May 2014	150	016

Bulletin

GOES Xray has observed several C-class flares since our last bulletin. They mainly originated from Catania sunspot groups 36 and 37 (NOAA AR 2051 and 2052). Catania sunspot group 36 has grown significantly and now has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. The largest flare was a C5.3 flare from Catania sunspot group 36, peaking at 6:08 UT on 3 May. A small CME can be associated with this flare, travelling westward. The current SOHO/COR2 imagery indicate the CME is too narrow to be a partial halo, as such it is not expected to be geo- effective. More C-class flares are expected. There is a moderate chance for an M-class flare. Catania sunspot groups 36 and 37 are the main source candidates. Slow solar wind conditions continue, with current solar wind speed measured by ACE being about 310 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was maximally 4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet and are expected to remain as such till the expected arrival of the slow CME of the UT night of 29-30 April, potentially leading to active conditions from early 5 May.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	128
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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