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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jul 13 1227 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jul 2014	140	012
14 Jul 2014	140	009
15 Jul 2014	140	004

Bulletin

Five C-class flares were observed since the last bulletin. The activity mainly originated from NOAA ARs 2108, 2109 and 2113. The largest flare was a C6.4 flare, peaking at 9:03 on July 13, originating from NOAA AR 2109, approaching the West limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. C-class flares are expected, with an increasing chance for an isolated M-class flare. Due to the location of NOAA ARs 2108 and 2109, with increasing activity, a warning condition for a potential proton event is issued. Solar wind speed reached values between 350 and 400 km/s. The magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field increased from 5 to 9 nT with a currently positive Bz component. No clear signatures of a shock arrival of the July 9 CME were observed yet. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled. This is expected to remain so till the possible arrival of a glancing blow of the July 9 CME, which might increase geomagnetic activity.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jul 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	090 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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