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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 16 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2014	130	007
17 Oct 2014	130	007
18 Oct 2014	130	007

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, two high C flares were released by the backside region close to the east limb that produced both M flares on October 14 (probably this region is the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The brightest flare reached its peak value of C7.7 at 7:37 UT on October 16. The CME associated with the M1.1 flare of October 16 (first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14) was a full halo CME, with main bulk propagating towards the southeast at an estimated speed of 923 km/s as measured on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares are possible, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced both M flares. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind was nominal, with speeds observed by ACE varying between about 365 and 460 km/s, and current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 8 nT, with current values around 6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 16, 17 and 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	134
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	067 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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