Emesso: 2014 Dec 27 1229 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10cm flux | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2014 | 130 | 013 |
| 28 Dec 2014 | 130 | 009 |
| 29 Dec 2014 | 125 | 008 |
Several C-class flares and one M-class flare were observed during the past period. Flaring activity mainly originated from NOAA active region 2249 (no Catania number yet). The strongest was an M2.3 flare peaking at 2:16 UT on December 27. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. More C-flares are expected, with a light chance for an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed was fluctuating in the range between 350 and 560 km/s with current values near 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 10 nT for the first half of the period and decreased later on to 5 nT. Geomagnetic activity reached active levels (K=4) at local (at Dourbes) and global levels (NOAA estimated Kp). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with some chance for active conditions. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.
| Wolf number Catania | /// |
| 10cm solar flux | 137 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 023 |
| AK Wingst | 017 |
| Estimated Ap | 016 |
| Estimated international sunspot number | 061 - Based on 12 stations |
| Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0203 | 0216 | 0224 | S11W48 | M2.2 | 2B | --/2249 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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