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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Jan 13 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jan 2015	159	007
14 Jan 2015	158	010
15 Jan 2015	157	010

Bulletin

There were two M class flares early today (M5.6 at 04:24 UT and M4.9 at 04:58 UT) from NOAA AR 2257. No associated CME was observed. More M-flares can be expected and due to the position of this AR very close to the west limb, a proton event at Earth may occur. The other ARs visible on disk are not expected to produce more than C-class flaring. A partial halo CME originating from NOAA AR 2261 was seen appearing first in LASCO-C2 at 15:36 UT on January 12. It is a faint CME with speed around 1000 km/s, that could have an Earth directed component with a possible predicted arrival on January 14 around 19:00 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so until the eventual arrival of the partial halo CME from January 12.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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