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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 May 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2015	126	013
18 May 2015	122	021
19 May 2015	118	010

Bulletin

No C-class flares were observed. NOAA 2339 is quietly rounding the west limb. The 5 other sunspot regions are small and magnetically simple. Various filament eruptions were observed, most notably a filament east of NOAA 2348 that erupted around 07:00UT. Based on currently available coronagraphic imagery, none of the related coronal mass ejections (CMEs) had an earth-directed component.

There's still a chance for an isolated C-class flare.

Solar wind speed decreased further from about 430 km/s and is currently ranging between 360 and 400 km/s. Bz varied between -4 and +5 nT. A sector boundary crossing was observed at 04:10-04:20UT, with the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field abruptly turning from toward to away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed.

The arrival of the 13 May CME and the high speed stream from the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole are expected for later today or 18 May. This may result in active conditions, with a possibility on a minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 059, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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