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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2016 Feb 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Feb 2016	097	017
20 Feb 2016	095	007
21 Feb 2016	097	007

Bulletin

Six low C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours, one low C flare by AR 2501 and one low C flare by a new region behind the southeastern limb (returning region 2490). The brightest flare was a C2.1 flare produced by AR 2497 which peaked at 5:08 UT on February 19. C flares (probability 75%) are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare (probability 15%), especially from AR 2497 and returning region 2490. ACE solar wind data are indicative of continued coronal hole high speed stream influence. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE gradually decreased from about 620 km/s to 560 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged between 2 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 2 and 5), as a combined effect of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 19 under the influence of the high speed stream, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 20 and 21.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	031
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	038 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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