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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2016 Jul 11 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jul 2016	094	007
12 Jul 2016	093	008
13 Jul 2016	091	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2564 (Macintosh class:Dai; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma) has been quiet, but has shown some evidence of flux emergence in HMI magnetogram observations, this may increase flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large northern polar coronal hole extending to low latitudes located near central longitudes. This region will rotate into the Western hemisphere in the coming days. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has decreased from around 580 to 500 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The large northern polar coronal hole, will move into the Western hemisphere over the coming days and may increase solar wind speeds. However, over the next couple of days solar wind speeds are expected to decrease, with a small chance of a small high speed stream (HSS) hitting the Earth. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet, with the small chance of the HSS enhancing activity.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	050 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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