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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2017 Feb 02 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Feb 2017	076	024
03 Feb 2017	076	021
04 Feb 2017	075	015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been very low. No significant flares have been recorded. All Active Regions (ARs) have shown low levels of activity, however AR 2632 (Mcintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has shown some evidence of growth, which may increase flaring activity. A partial halo CME was visible from 15:24 UT onwards yesterday (2017-Feb-01). The ejection was mostly directed towards the North and has an angular extent of approximately 150 degrees. The speed was measured to be approximately 250 km/s. The source region is unclear but is believed to be back-sided. More information may become available with further STEREO observations, but the event should not influence the Earth. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares and a very low probability of M-class flares. A large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is currently located in the Western hemisphere.

The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 650 and 700 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has been around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 3-5 (NOAA) and local K index 2-5 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The high speed stream (HSS) associated with the large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is the cause of the increased solar wind speeds and as a consequence the Geomagnetic conditions have increased, reaching K index 5. The enhanced solar wind speed is expected to create intermittent 'active' geomagnetic conditions over the next couple of days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 041, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Feb 2017

Wolf number Catania	076
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	039 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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