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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2019 May 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2019	074	019
17 May 2019	073	024
18 May 2019	072	007

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a C2.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT on May 15. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 40%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 400 and 460 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 420 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was directed predominantly away from the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 10 nT, with current values around 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 16 and 17, due to the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs. A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 014, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	025
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	020 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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