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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2021 Jul 02 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jul 2021	093	007
03 Jul 2021	091	016
04 Jul 2021	089	010

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below C level with only some B level flares. The largest region on disc, NOAA region 2835 (Catania group 9), has simplified in magnetic complexity (now classified beta-gamma) but remains the most likely source for flaring at above C level. NOAA region 2836 (Catania group 10) has lost its trailing spot while region 2837 (Catania group 11) has developed leading spots. Some C class flare activity remains likely, primarily from region 2835, with also still a chance for flaring at M class level.

No new Earth directed CMEs have been recorded in coronagraph data.

A small negative polarity coronal hole started transiting the central meridian around midnight. Although it is seen to fade as it is transiting the central meridian, some influence on Solar wind conditions near Earth could still be possible starting around noon July 5.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and electron fluence is expected to remain at normal levels over the next days.

Solar wind conditions displayed a decline towards slow Solar wind conditions. The Solar wind speed decreased from over 500 km/s to around 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 8.6nT to around 5nT with a variable Bz component. The magnetic field phi angle indicated that the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing away from the Sun. A further return towards slow Solar wind conditions is expected with tomorrow July 3 some possible perturbations related to the possible arrival of the CME from June 29. From July 5 onwards some increase is possible related to the negative polarity coronal hole that is currently transiting the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet with tomorrow also unsettled and some active periods possible in case the CME arrives.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jul 2021

Wolf number Catania	055
10cm solar flux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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