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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Nov 11 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Nov 2022	139	009
12 Nov 2022	139	011
13 Nov 2022	139	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with several C-class flares and two M-class flares produced by the most complex bipolar sunspot region Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141) currently on the solar surface visible from Earth. The first M1.2-class flare peaked at 07:14 UTC on Nov 11 and was associated with Type IV Radio Emission, which may occur in association with coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. However, so far no coronal mass ejections or solar radiation storms have been observed. The second flare was also an M1.2-class flare that peaked at 11:40 UTC on Nov 11. The other sunspot groups on the solar surface visible from Earth didn’t show any significant flaring activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain moderate levels with a probability of M-class flare and possible one isolated X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Also not associated coronal dimming to the M-class flares were observed in the Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141) currently located close to the central meridian.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached for a very short period the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was mostly at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed parameter (ACE and DSCOVR) was at nominal levels between 295 km/s and 345 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field became enhanced and increased from 5 nT up to the current values around 10 nT. The southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bz component, shows a long period of negative values with a minimum reaching -7.4 nT. This might be associated with the expected arrival of the high- speed streams from narrow equatorial coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (K-Belgium, Kp-NOAA ranged between 0 and 1) with a short period of unsettled geomagnetic conditions due to the long period of negative values from the southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bz component. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible short periods of active geomagnetic conditions are possible due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from a small and narrow equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 066, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	121
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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