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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Oct 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Oct 2023	162	009
12 Oct 2023	167	021
13 Oct 2023	175	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M2 flare detected yesterday 12:17 UTC from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3452 (magnetic configuration Alpha, Catania group 86). Most of the C-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours was associated with NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 4) and NOAA AR 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 87). As the pair of NOAA AR 3451 and 3452 rotates behind the limb the chances of an M-class flare diminish significantly. Nevertheless, C-class flares are highly expected in the next 24 hours.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME automatically detected by CACTus yesterday 11:01 UTC is associated with an EUV flare observed by Solar Orbiter's FSI/EUI instrument at the same time. Based on the location of the EUV flare, this is a back-sided event and it will not be geo-effective.

Vento solare

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 260 km/h and 400 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was between 3 and 6 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away for the Sun during the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause significant disturbance over a few days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were (very) quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 0+ to 1- and K BEL 1) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to increase to unsettled or active levels in the next 24 hours as a result of the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive during the next 24 hours and cause the 2 MeV electron flux to increase and possibly exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold level. The 24h electron fluence dropped to very low levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours but remain at low levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 142, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	135 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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