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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Dec 18 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Dec 2023	158	076
19 Dec 2023	159	060
20 Dec 2023	159	019

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 3520 which peaked at 20:17 UTC on Dec 17. During the flare, the source region (AR 3520) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Fori coronali

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting to cross the central meridian today.

Vento solare

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of several ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s to 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -14 and 12 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 4 nT to 17 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Dec 17 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have reached moderate storm levels globally (Kp 6) and active condition levels locally (K_Bel 4) starting at 06 UT on Dec 18, due to the continuous impact of the several ICMEs that departed the Sun from Dec 14 and early Dec 15. We expect active to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions in the next 24 hours possibly due the arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal to moderate level. It is expected that this parameter will remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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