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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2025 Jul 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jul 2025	143	008
14 Jul 2025	145	016
15 Jul 2025	147	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.6 flare peaking on July 12 at 12:10 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 553 (NOAA Active Region 4140). This region produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4136) is the largest region on disk and has a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 555 (NOAA Active Region 4141) has emerged on the solar disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Fori coronali

Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (low to mid latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) started to cross the central meridian on July 08 and is continuing to cross the central meridian.

Vento solare

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions at Earth were disturbed, due to a high-speed stream (HSS), associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104. The solar wind speed ranged from 420 km/s to 728 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 6 nT to 14 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -10 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24, due to the influence of the HSS.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally and locally (Kp +4 & K BEL 4). Active to minor storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. During the next 24 hours, there’s a chance that the electron flux exceeds the 1000 pfu threshold due to the influence of the HSS. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 127, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jul 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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