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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2025 Oct 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2025	188	025
02 Oct 2025	189	050
03 Oct 2025	190	045

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with two M-class flares and a few C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5647), peaking at 12:27 UTC on September 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 648 (NOAA Active Region 4230, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). The other M-class flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 5650), peaking at 02:26 UTC on October 01, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4232, magnetic type beta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex region is SIDC Sunspot Group 648 (magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC Sunspot Groups 614 and 658 (NOAA Active Region 4227 and 4237) and SIDC 660 have decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 661 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

Further analysis of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 565) that lifted off at 09:45 UTC on September 30, suggests a small chance for a glancing blow arrival starting from the UTC evening on October 02, but with low confidence. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

Fori coronali

The two equatorial, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 128 and 123) are crossing the central meridian since September 29 and September 30 respectively.

Vento solare

The solar wind conditions (ACE) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, initially due to the prolonged effects of an ICME arrival (related to the slow, wide Coronal Mass Ejection that lifted off around 02:00 UTC on September 24, SIDC CME 564) and later most likely due to the early arrival of a high-speed stream from the two equatorial, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 128 and 123). The solar wind speed increased from 450 to around 810 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum on 20 nT, decreasing after to around 8 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -16 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was predominantly in the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, under the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream from SIDC Coronal Holes 128 and 123.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were initially at moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6-), decreasing to minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5+ to 5-) since 00:00 UTC on October 01. Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially at active levels (K Bel 4), reaching minor storm levels (K Bel 5) between 20:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on September 30. Geomagnetic conditions locally have decreased since to active levels. The geomagnetic storms occurred likely due to an ICME arrival (related to the slow, wide Coronal Mass Ejection that lifted off around 02:00 UTC on September 24 (SIDC CME 564)) and most likely the early arrival of a high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 128 and 123). Mostly active to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4 to 5), with possible isolated moderate storm intervals (NOAA Kp 6), are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream from SIDC Coronal Holes 128 and 123.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 increased but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain under the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 166, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	187
AK Chambon La Forêt	068
AK Wingst	061
Estimated Ap	069
Estimated international sunspot number	180 - Based on 34 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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