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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2026 Jan 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jan 2026	112	022
13 Jan 2026	114	031
14 Jan 2026	114	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 6631) peaking on January 11 at 23:14 UTC, originated from a region from behind the east limb. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups are currently on the disk, all having alpha or beta magnetic configuration and have produced only C-class flaring. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. The halo CME detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 23:36 UTC 11 JAN 2026, is backsided and not expected to arrive to the Earth.

Vento solare

Solar wind conditions were slightly elevated with speeds around 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 10nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -10 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ongoing ICME passage, and the possible arrival of high-speed streams from negative polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 137 and SIDC Coronal Hole 142).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally and locally (Kp 5, K5) between 12:00 and 21:00 UTC on January 11 Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next day due to the ongoing ICME passage and possible HSS arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded slightly the 1000 pfu threshold on 11 JAN between 21:35 UTC and 12 JAN 01:30 UTC and is currently slightly above the threshold since 10:45 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to have short crossings over the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jan 2026

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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