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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2026 Feb 17 1250 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2026	118	035
18 Feb 2026	118	022
19 Feb 2026	118	048

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 7041) peaking on February 17 at 04:52 UTC, which was produced by an unnumbered active region on the E limb. A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 795 (NOAA Active Region 4377) is the most complex region with its Beta-Delta magnetic configuration, but it has produced only B-class flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

A faint and wider coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images starting around 14:00 UTC on Feb 16. This CME is associated to a filament eruption in the S hemisphere (S3-25 W0-17) of the Sun starting around 12:30 UTC. It has a projected speed of about 457 km/s and a projected width of about 110 deg. With its source region closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on Feb 19-20. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Vento solare

Earth is still inside a fast solar wind stream, with the continuous arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (elongated, positive polarity). The solar wind speed ranged from 535 to 720 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 to 8 nT, with the North-South component (Bz) reaching a minimum of -7 nT. In the next 24 hours, solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced with the further arrival of HSSs from the same coronal hole and SIDC Coronal Hole 150 (small, equatorial, negative polarity) which crossed the central meridian during Feb 14-15. As well as, solar wind conditions will be enhanced if the glancing blow, associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was observed lifting from the Sun in the morning of Feb 16, arrives at the Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 6), and locally over Belgium at quiet to minor storm conditions (K BEL 1 to 5) during the past 24 hours. It was due to the continuous arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (elongated, positive polarity). In the next 24 hours, we expect unsettled to moderate storm conditions (K 3 to 6) possibly with the further arrival of HSSs from the same coronal hole and SIDC Coronal Hole 150 (small, equatorial, negative polarity) which crossed the central meridian during Feb 14-15. As well as, geomagnetic conditions will be enhanced (k=5) if the glancing blow, associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was observed lifting from the Sun in the morning of Feb 16, arrives at the Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, increased and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold level from 16:45 UTC on Feb 16 to 01:30 UTC on Feb 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 satellite, exceeded above the 1000 pfu threshold level around 15:45 UTC and dropped below the threshold level around 22:30 UTC on Feb 16. It was in response to the high speed streams (HSS) from the elongated, positive polarity, coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 146) which started to cross the central meridian since Feb 13. The electron flux is expected to exceed the threshold level in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2026

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	118
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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