Przeglądasz Archiwum z sobota, 9 listopada 2013

Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2013 Nov 09 1411 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
09 Nov 2013	144	022
10 Nov 2013	144	005
11 Nov 2013	146	004

Skrót wiadomości

Only three weak C-class flares were reported since the previous bulletin. However, Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We therefore expect the flaring activity to continue on the M-level, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. Due to the position of the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) right to the west of the solar central meridian, a warning condition for a proton event is maintained. Currently the proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is slowly growing, but this growth is most probably due to earlier eastern hemisphere events and is not expected to lead to a proton event. Since late November 8, the Earth is inside a region of elevated interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude (up to 17 nT), probably representing an ICME. The corresponding solar CME is not clear at the moment. The solar wind speed remained low (around 400-450 km/s), so only active (K = 4, Dourbes, IZMIRAN, NOAA) to minor storm (K = 5, IZMIRAN) geomagnetic conditions were reported. Currently the solar wind speed reaches 530 km/s, and the IMF magnitude is still increased (around 10 nT), so active geomagnetic conditions are still possible.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 077, na podstawie 15 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 08 Nov 2013

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	172
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	005
Szacunkowa Ap	005
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	100 - Na podstawie stacji 20

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

Wszystkie czasy w UTC

<< Idź do codziennego przeglądu