Przeglądasz Archiwum z czwartek, 11 września 2014

Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2014 Sep 11 1236 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
11 Sep 2014	164	018
12 Sep 2014	168	026
13 Sep 2014	170	059

Skrót wiadomości

On 10 September, NOAA 2158 produced an X1.6 flare peaking at 17:45UT. It was accompanied by an EIT wave, coronal dimming, and post-flare coronal loops. Around 21:00UT, the proton flux gradually started to increase, and a minor proton event started around 03:00UT. Associated to this strong flare was a full halo CME, first observed by SOHO/LASCO at 18:00UT. It had a plane-of-the-sky speed of at least 800 km/s and is directed to Earth. Estimated arrival time is 21 September at 21:00UT (+/- 12 hours). There are currently 9 sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2158 has no delta structure, but the main spot remains close to opposite polarity flux to the south and east. NOAA 2157 retained its delta structure in its main trailing spot. An active region that is about to round the northeast limb was responsible for a C4 flare peaking at 03:49UT. This was the strongest of 3 low-level C-class flares that were observed during the last 24 hours. M-class flares are expected, with a chance on another X-class event. Solar wind speed was mostly between 350 and 400 km/s, with Bz varying between +6 and -7 nT. A sector boundary crossing was observed around 21:30UT, with IMF turning away from the Sun. Brief periods of active geomagnetic conditions were observed over the last 12 hours, otherwise the geomagnetic field was unsettled. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for 11 and most of 12 September in response to the possible impact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September. This will then be followed by the arrival of the halo CME related to the X1.6 flare late on 12 or early on 13 September. Pending the orientation of the CME's magnetic field, this may result in a major geomagnetic storm, with locally severe geomagnetic storming possible.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 114, na podstawie 13 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 10 Sep 2014

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	184
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Szacunkowa Ap	011
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	113 - Na podstawie stacji 21

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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