Просмотр архива за четверг, 14 ноября 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Nov 14 1204 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Nov 2013	172	008
15 Nov 2013	174	008
16 Nov 2013	168	017

Bulletin

The strongest flare observed during last 24 hours was a confined M1.4 flare (peaked at 15:20 UT, on November 13), originating from the NOAA AR 1897. We expect C-class and possibly M-class flares, while X-class flares are possible but not very probable. Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) is at the moment close to the west solar limb, therefore, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event during the following hours. The Earth is still inside a slow solar wind flow with the speed of about 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude of about 4 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so during the following hours. We expect quiet to active geomagnetic conditions late on November 16, due to arrival of a fast flow associated with the low- latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 132, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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