Просмотр архива за среда, 11 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 11 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Dec 2013	175	005
12 Dec 2013	175	007
13 Dec 2013	175	007

Bulletin

The Sun is still in a C-flaring mood. It is almost sure that more C-flares will happen. The probability for M-flaring activity is estimated around 40%. There are 9 active regions on the solar disk. Several of them are magnetically connected. NOAA AR 1922 (Catania 74) has grown from nothing to a beta-gamma configuration. A partial halo CME was detected on Dec 9, around 21UT. The source region was located in the North-East. We don't expect this CME to be geoeffective. A recurrent large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere reached the central meridian. It caused previous rotation a Kp of 4. Geomagnetic disturbances are excepted on December 14.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 124, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	209
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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