Просмотр архива за суббота, 21 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 21 1327 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Dec 2013	148	007
22 Dec 2013	148	007
23 Dec 2013	148	007

Bulletin

Eight C-flares were observed during the past 24 hours, all originating from Catania sunspot region 87 (NOAA AR 1928). NOAA AR 1934 (no Catania number yet) shows some growth. There were no Earth-directed CME observed. The probability for C-flares is around 70% and for M-flares around 30%, from NOAA ARs 1928, 1930 and 1934. An X-flare is possible but unlikely. We are currently in a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 350 km/s and a magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field of maximally 6 nT (observed by ACE). Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp<4) and are expected to remain so during the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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