Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 22 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 22 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Dec 2013	140	002
23 Dec 2013	138	006
24 Dec 2013	138	015

Bulletin

Several C-flares and two M-flares were observed during the past 24 hours, many occurring short after each other. Catania sunspot region 87 (NOAA AR 1928) is most active. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, and for M-flares around 40%. An X-flare is possible but unlikely. Solar wind speed remains around 350 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is still around 5 nT, as observed by ACE. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (Kp<4) and are expected to remain so during the next 48 hours. Towards the end of day 3, geomagnetic conditions might become unsettled to active, due to the effects of a coronal hole, which is currently at the central meridian and a latitude of 25 to 50 degrees.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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