Просмотр архива за понедельник, 23 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 23 1314 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Dec 2013	143	003
24 Dec 2013	145	005
25 Dec 2013	145	021

Bulletin

There were five M flares and thirteen C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, the large majority being released by NOAA AR 11928. The brightest one was an M3.3 flare from NOAA AR 11928 peaking at 15:12 UT on December 22. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (over 90%) and for M flares around 75%, mainly from beta-gamma regions NOAA AR 11928 and NOAA 11934. An X flare is possible but unlikely. A warning condition for proton storms is issued in view of the high flaring rate of NOAA AR 11928 near the West limb. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed decreased from around 340 km/s to around 310 km/s and the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was around 3 nT, as observed by ACE. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) and are expected to remain so on December 23 and 24. On December 25, geomagnetic conditions might become active (K Dourbes = 4) due to the effects of a northern coronal hole (25-55N), which has passed the central meridian yesterday.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	000
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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