Просмотр архива за пятница, 3 января 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Jan 03 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jan 2014	160	010
04 Jan 2014	163	017
05 Jan 2014	163	008

Bulletin

The Sun produced seven C flares and one M flare during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has grown in size and evolved to a beta-gamma region. NOAA AR 1936 shows some decay and is approaching the west limb. More M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA ARs 1936 and 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Solar wind speed measured by ACE reached a maximum of 650 km/s, but has now declined to about 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field declined from 8 to 4 nT, with a Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. Estimated NOAA Kp and local K_Izmiran reached a maximum of 5 due to the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp and K_Izmiran 2 to 3). Unsettled to minor storm conditions (local K 3 to 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of the CMEs of December 29 and December 31.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 100, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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