Просмотр архива за пятница, 31 января 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Jan 31 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jan 2014	163	002
01 Feb 2014	165	006
02 Feb 2014	166	024

Bulletin

Solar activity has been at active levels over the last 24 hours. 6 C- and 1 M-class flares were recorded, all originating from NOAA 1967. The strongest was an M6-flare peaking at 16:11UT. The sunspot region still has a few magnetic delta structures. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a slight chance on an X-class flare. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting at 08:12UT. It was most probably associated to the M2-class event that took place in NOAA 1967 (maximum at 06:39UT). It has a slow speed of about 350 km/s. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting 16:12UT. It was associated to the M6-flare, and had an initial plane-of-sky speed of 1735 km/s (latest CACTUS result). The bulk of the CME was directed away (to the southeast) from Earth. It is very likely this CME will overtake the partial halo CME of the M2-event. Solar wind parameters are currently at average levels, with a speed near 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, solar wind may continue to be modulated by the effects of small coronal holes that have passed the central meridian on 27 and 29 January. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for that period. Late on 1 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the 29 January CME, but little geomagnetic disturbances are expected. This may change upon the arrival of the CME from the M6-event, which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. This may result in active geomagnetic conditions, with locally a minor storm possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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