Просмотр архива за пятница, 14 марта 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Mar 14 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Mar 2014	143	011
15 Mar 2014	143	008
16 Mar 2014	143	007

Bulletin

There were six C flares and one M flare on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 11996 and 12003. The M1.2 flare was produced by NOAA AR 11996 and peaked at 19:19 UT on March 13. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (above 90%) and for M flares around 50%, mainly from NOAA AR 11996. An X flare is possible but unlikely. LASCO C2 imagery featured a CME starting at 10:00 UT on March 14 in the northeast to southeast. The same CME was spotted on COR2 A and COR2 B images in the northwest to southwest. This CME is most probably associated to a backside filament eruption, which was observed in EUVI B at about 9:36 UT. Hence, this CME will not be geoeffective. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE further rose from about 350 km/s to a plateau of about 520 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 10 nT. This is probably the effect of a southern coronal hole high speed stream. A small coronal hole at about 30N passed the central meridian on March 13. It may influence the geomagnetic field on March 17 and 18. In the past 24 hours, quiet geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on March 14 under the influence of the high speed stream. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are likely on March 15 and 16.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	135
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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